UBS
2026-06-12
First Read Raiffeisen Bank Intl: A step towards building more capital
Report Summary
UBS analyzes Raiffeisen Bank International's (RBI) synthetic risk transfer (SRT) linked to €3.3bn of corporate loans across Austria, Slovakia, Germany, and the Czech Republic, resulting in a 16bps positive impact on CET1 ratio. Combined with the announced acquisition of BBVA Garanti Romania and the tender offer for Addiko Bank, pro-forma core CET1 ratio reaches 14.2% vs. a 14.5% target. UBS maintains a Buy rating, citing CEE growth exposure, profitability recovery with M&A upside, and near-term FX tailwinds.
Key Takeaways
- RBI completed a synthetic risk transfer on €3.3bn of corporate loans, yielding a 16bps CET1 ratio benefit, bringing group CET1 to 17.7% in Q1'26.
- RBI is one of the largest users of SRTs among European banks, with 8% of Exposure at Default subject to SRT and 110bps group CET1 benefit vs. ~30bps European average.
- Acquisitions of BBVA Garanti Romania and the Addiko tender offer take pro-forma core CET1 to 14.2%, with a target of 14.5% expected by 2027.
- UBS forecasts ROTE improving from 11% in 2025 to 12% in 2026E and 16% in 2028E, driven by volume growth, normalizing trading income, and lower Polish CHF provisioning.
- Valuation based on 8.0x P/E 2027E and 1.2x P/TNAV excluding Russia, with a €52 price target (8.9% forecast return) vs. current price of €47.74.
Topics Covered
Banking
Capital Management
CET1 Ratio
Synthetic Risk Transfer
M&A
CEE Markets
European Banks
Companies Mentioned
Raiffeisen Bank International
BBVA Garanti
Addiko Bank
STRABAG
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