Copper Foil to Ride on AI HVLP Demand Surge; Initiate on Defu/TGCF
Report Coverage
- Broker
- Jefferies
- Region
- Greater China
- Sector
- Information Technology, Electronic Equipment
- Report Type
- Company Report
- Primary Focus
- AI-driven HVLP copper foil demand surge and Chinese vendor opportunity
Report Summary
Jefferies initiates coverage of Defu (301511 CH) and TGCF (301217 CH) with BUY ratings, forecasting the global copper foil TAM to expand at ~15% CAGR to US$55B by 2030, driven by 30-40% CAGR in high-end HVLP product demand for AI infrastructure. HVLP4 specification upgrades from major AI players (NVIDIA, Google, Amazon) in 2H26 will drive higher copper foil ASPs, with Chinese vendors' global market share potentially rising from under 10% to over 30% within 2-3 years. DCF-based price targets imply 37% and 27% upside for Defu and TGCF respectively.
Key Takeaways
- Global copper foil TAM forecast to grow at ~15% CAGR from RMB192B in 2025 to RMB371B (~US$55B) by 2030, driven by AI PCB/CCL demand
- AI HVLP demand expected to grow from ~1.3kt/month in 2025 to over 6kt/month by 2030 (30-40% CAGR), becoming a key driver for copper foil TAM expansion
- HVLP4 specification upgrades by major AI players (NVIDIA, Google, Amazon) in 2H26 will drive processing fees per ton to over 10x traditional HTE copper foil
- Chinese vendors' global HVLP market share could rise from under 10% in 2025 to over 30% in 2-3 years as they rapidly expand high-end capacity
- Defu is the top pick with aggressive capacity expansion (50kt additional in 2027-28) and 169% NP CAGR forecast for 2026-28E, implying 37% PT upside
- TGCF leads in HVLP technology (already passed HVLP4 qualification) with high-end products contributing most of 2025 profit, implying 27% PT upside
Why This Report Matters
This report identifies a critical but under-researched upstream bottleneck in the AI supply chain, where Chinese copper foil vendors are positioned to capture significant market share as AI infrastructure demand outstrips global HVLP supply.
Topics Covered
Companies Mentioned
Who this summary is for
This summary is for users researching the Jefferies Copper Foil to Ride on AI HVLP Demand Surge report. It helps users review Copper Foil to Ride on AI HVLP Demand Surge; Initiate on Defu/TGCF coverage, key takeaways, and related broker or sector research paths across AI HVLP copper foil, PCB/CCL materials, AI infrastructure supply chain; Defu Technology, TGCF.
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