2026 CMD first take: Mixed financial outlook; Vicuña RIGI approved
Report Coverage
- Broker
- Morgan Stanley
- Region
- Europe / Latin America (Sweden, Argentina, Chile, Brazil)
- Report Type
- Company Report
- Primary Focus
- CMD financial outlook and Vicuña RIGI approval
Full Report Document Access
This page is a research report summary and access guidance page. If you are searching for Morgan Stanley 2026 CMD first take research report PDF or the full report document, use the summary, coverage fields and related links to confirm relevance before requesting VIP access. Full PDF report access is available to VIP members after request confirmation; the PDF is not publicly displayed on this page.
Report Summary
Lundin Mining's 2026 CMD guided to adjusted EBITDA of US$1.7bn and adjusted FCF of US$1.2bn, with EBITDA weaker than consensus at US$2.6bn but FCF broadly in line. Long-term (2026-2035) cumulative EBITDA guidance of US$36.1bn is in line with consensus. Vicuña Corp received Argentina RIGI PEELP approval covering US$9.7bn of capex, with FID on track by year-end 2026.
Key Takeaways
- 2026 EBITDA guidance of US$1.7bn is significantly below consensus of US$2.6bn and MSe of US$2.4bn, while adjusted FCF of US$1.2bn is broadly in line with market expectations of US$1.1-1.3bn.
- Long-term 2026-2030 EBITDA guided at US$13.2bn with adj. FCF of US$8.2bn; 2031-2035 EBITDA steps up to US$22.9bn with FCF of US$15.5bn, modestly above MSe base case.
- Vicuña became the first copper mining project in Argentina to receive RIGI PEELP status, with US$9.7bn capex covering Stage 1 (US$7.1bn) and part of Stage 2 leachable oxides (US$2.6bn of US$3.9bn).
- Caserones expected to unlock 10-15ktpa additional cathode copper production, bringing total capacity to ~40ktpa from 35ktpa, partially offsetting lower sulphide head grades.
- Chapada Saíva project targets trimmed: copper production growth of 15kt (vs 15-20ktpa previously) and gold 45kozpa (vs 50-60kozpa), with first ore expected early 2029.
- Candelaria underground contractor insourcing nearing completion, expected to boost productivity and facilitate UG mining expansion; additional open pit phase under study.
Why This Report Matters
The CMD provides a comprehensive 10-year financial outlook and confirms Vicuña's RIGI approval — a critical de-risking milestone for one of the largest undeveloped copper projects, highly relevant for investors assessing Lundin's long-term copper exposure and capital allocation.
Topics Covered
Companies Mentioned
Who this summary is for
This summary is for users researching the Morgan Stanley 2026 CMD first take report. It helps users review 2026 CMD first take: Mixed financial outlook; Vicuña RIGI approved coverage, key takeaways, and related broker or sector research paths across copper mining operations, capital markets day guidance, Argentina RIGI investment incentive; Lundin Mining Corp., Vicuña Corp..
Related Search Paths
Use these links to continue through broker, sector and report-type research summaries.