NC (036570.KS): Turnaround to multi-year earnings growth cycle transition intact; reiterate Buy
Report Coverage
- Broker
- Goldman Sachs
- Region
- South Korea
- Sector
- Utilities, Real Estate
- Report Type
- Company Report
- Primary Focus
- NCSOFT multi-year AAA earnings growth cycle
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Report Summary
Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on NC (NCSOFT, 036570.KS) with a raised 12-month target price of W380,000 (43% upside), citing the company's entry into a multi-year earnings growth cycle. The thesis rests on resilient monetization from existing titles (Lineage Classic, AION2), an increasingly visible AAA pipeline (Horizon Steel Frontiers, Guild Wars 3), and significant upward earnings revisions with 2026E-28E operating profit CAGR of 27%. The stock trades at an attractive 13.4x forward EPS versus the 19x target multiple.
Key Takeaways
- NC is entering a multi-year earnings growth cycle supported by three pillars: resilient existing game earnings, a visible AAA pipeline, and mobile casual game expansion
- Lineage Classic shows strong retention (16% PC cafe share, 63% retention vs. peak) and is transitioning into a stable live-service cash cow rather than a post-launch decline
- Horizon Steel Frontiers (expected 2Q27 launch) could add ~W260bn to 2027E revenue, leveraging Sony's Horizon IP with 40mn+ lifetime franchise sales
- Guild Wars 3 (expected 1Q28 launch) could achieve ~5.3mn units in first 12 months and ~W530bn gross revenue, benefiting from 29mn cumulative franchise users
- Goldman Sachs raises 2026E/27E/28E operating profit by 15%/20%/185% to W485bn/W574bn/W785bn, supporting 27% OP CAGR over the forecast period
- Key risks include faster-than-expected deterioration in existing titles, AAA pipeline execution risk, and failure to diversify beyond the domestic MMORPG user base
Why This Report Matters
NC represents one of the most visible AAA game pipelines among Korean internet/gaming names, with Horizon Steel Frontiers and Guild Wars 3 offering catalysts for a structural re-rating from a mature MMORPG operator to a recurring global AAA content platform, at a current 43% upside to Goldman Sachs' target price.
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This summary is for users researching the Goldman Sachs NC (036570.KS) report. It helps users review NC (036570.KS): Turnaround to multi-year earnings growth cycle transition intact; reiterate Buy coverage, key takeaways, and related broker or sector research paths across Korean gaming earnings growth, AAA game pipeline monetization, MMORPG franchise retention metrics; NC, NCSOFT.
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