Goldman Sachs
2026-06-12
GS EUROPEAN EXPRESS: Signify | Aviva | Chocolate | Halma | Macro | Global | Corporate Access
Report Summary
Goldman Sachs downgrades Signify to Neutral after strong 3-month outperformance, seeing insufficient upside (+2%) and downside to consensus EBITA estimates. Aviva's solvency upside is revisited with >20ppts potential from international JV disposals. In chocolate, Lindt faces pricing pressure from raw material deflation while Nestle is better insulated. Halma's post-results sell-off is deemed overdone with Buy reiterated. Macro highlights include ECB hiking 25bp and Brent oil forecast at $90 for 2026Q4.
Key Takeaways
- Signify downgraded to Neutral with only +2% upside vs 12% sector average; GS sees 3%/5% below consensus FY26/27 EBITA due to Chinese competition and delayed rate cuts
- Aviva has >20ppts of group solvency upside from potential disposal of India/China JVs which hold ~15% of group SCR
- Lindt would need meaningful price cuts as raw material deflation sets in; GS is 1-2% below consensus FY26/27 with PT cut 5%
- Halma's 15% sell-off on Photonics disappointment deemed overdone; GS sets FY27/28 adj. EBIT ~3%/9% above consensus
- GS keeps 2026Q4 Brent forecast at $90, with extreme scenario at $110 and benign scenario at $70; ECB hiked 25bp with September hike also expected
Topics Covered
European Equities
Lighting/Signify
Insurance/Solvency
Consumer/Chocolate
Photonics/Data Centers
Oil Prices
ECB Monetary Policy
Semiconductors
Companies Mentioned
Signify
Aviva
Lindt
Nestle
Halma
STMicroelectronics
Infineon
Adyen
Flutter Entertainment
Saint-Gobain
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