We forecast July core PCE at 0.23% after PPI: U.S. Data Pulse: PCE inflation | North America
Institutional-grade analysis used by equity desks before repricing events. 5 pages.
Report fact snapshot
- Publisher
- Morgan Stanley
- Date
- 2026-08-13
- Type
- Economic Report
- Region
- United States
- Sector
- Finance & Macro
- Companies
- Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Market is pricing this as noise.
Data shows a structural shift is underway.
Sector models are broken — re-rating is imminent.
Based on Morgan Stanley research, August 2026 data and regional breakdowns
Key Research Signals
Market is pricing this as noise.
Data shows a structural shift is underway.
Why it matters: Identifies the exact point where consensus models diverge from actual data.
A re-rating catalyst is approaching.
Consensus has not yet reflected this shift.
Why it matters: Frames the catalyst window before violent repricing begins.
Winners are concentrated in this space.
Specific companies are structurally outperforming.
Why it matters: Tracks the capital rotation toward structural winners before it becomes consensus.
What You Gain From This Report
Decision Insight
Mispricing is not yet reflected in consensus models.
Missed Risk
Without the full report, you miss the company-level breakdown that separates winners from losers.
Timing Advantage
The catalyst window is open now — consensus repricing will close it within quarters.
What you miss without the full report:
- Company-level positioning and stock picks
- Valuation assumptions and model inputs
- Price target logic and catalyst timeline
Why Institutional Investors Care
Mispricing windows like this typically precede sector re-rating events.
Early positioning in structural winners often leads to outsized returns when consensus catches up.
The catalyst window narrows as monthly data becomes consensus, making near-term positioning critical.
Report Summary
Morgan Stanley raised its July core PCE forecast to 0.23% month on month from 0.20% after the PPI release, while headline PCE is projected at 0.14%. The revision mainly reflects firmer financial-services prices, partly offset by softer healthcare and airfares.
Institutional Content Below
Full PDF (5 pages), valuation models, broker logic, and detailed charts.
Key Takeaways
- July core PCE is forecast at 0.23% month on month and 3.27% year on year; headline PCE is forecast at 0.14% month on month.
- The three- and six-month annualized core PCE rates are projected at 2.79% and 3.30%, both lower than in June.
- Market-based core PCE is tracking at 0.13% month on month, while trimmed-mean PCE is estimated at 0.18% month on month and 2.25% year on year.
- A persistent shift toward negative price-change skewness could make trimmed-mean PCE more informative about underlying inflation again.
Topics Covered
Companies Mentioned
Who this summary is for
This summary is for users researching the Morgan Stanley We forecast July core PCE at 0.23% after PPI report. It helps users review We forecast July core PCE at 0.23% after PPI: U.S. Data Pulse: PCE inflation | North America coverage, key takeaways, and related broker or sector research paths across US inflation, Core PCE, Monetary policy; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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