Asia Economics: AI capex, oil, the Fed, tariffs, and El Niño: climbing the wall of worry
Downloaded by Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley Investors are raising 3 concerns: We see Asia’s growth outlook to remain…
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Research linked to Federal Reserve policy, rate decisions, liquidity and monetary conditions.
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ECB Gaps Pricing: A Quantitative Framework
Morgan Stanley presents a quantitative framework for ECB gap pricing, comparing policy expectations across forecast and non-forecast meetings and tracking how…
Australia: Inflation still a narrow phenomenon
Australia?s second-quarter CPI was softer than revised expectations, with both core and headline inflation undershooting RBA forecasts. JPMorgan sees…
July FOMC: A question of patience
The market believes the Fed will cut rates soon, but the data shows payrolls near breakeven and core inflation flat, indicating the Fed's patience will delay…
Global Economics & Strategy: Deep Speak: An AI-driven read on tone shifts at the Fed, ECB and BoJ
The market mistakenly treats the Fed, ECB, and BoJ as synchronized in policy stance, but AI tone tracking reveals a clear divergence in their communication…
Crude Oil → Fed Policy Pricing → UST Yield Linkage Returns
The market broadly assumes the transmission mechanism between crude oil, Fed policy, and UST yields is permanently broken, but recent data reveals this…
Large Cap Banks: Fed Weekly: Continued Weak C&I Related Loan Growth Bodes For Weak 3Q If Sustained - Sharp Slowdown In NBFI Loans; Deposits Also Sluggish Last Week
The market treats large and small banks as a homogeneous group, but a sharp divergence in deposit and loan trends reveals a structural fault line that is not…
USA: Core PCE in Line With Expectations; Q1 GDP Revised Up to +2.1% on Lower Imports and Higher Inventories; Core Durable Goods Orders
The market treats headline GDP growth as a uniform signal of economic health, but the composition reveals a critical divergence where inventories and trade…
Australia Banks (AQ), Orix, ICICI Bank (feedback), Fed Stress Test
The market treats Australian banks as a resilient sector, but Judo's guidance cut reveals a structural divergence in asset quality. Global investment banks…
US Week Ahead: US Week Ahead: June 22 – June 28
The key economic data release this week is the PCE inflation report on Thursday. There are Jan Hatzius several speaking engagements with Fed officials this…
Sunday Start | What‘s Next in Global Macro: New Chair, New Chapter
inflation expectations has moved up only little, in contrast to the surge in the Michigan measure. In the preliminary estimate for June, long-run inflation…
Global Data Watch: Asia: Stimulus Delayed, Growth Deferred in China
China’s economic activity softened further in May 2026, with housing slump persisting, fiscal delivery weakening, and domestic demand remaining subdued…
Global Rates Strategy: 2026 Outlook – Iran conflict meets hawkish Fed meets AI
UBS covers geopolitical risk (Iran/Hormuz), monetary policy (hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh), and AI macro shifts. US 10y at 4.5% Q2 then 4.25% year-end; long…
US Economics Weekly: A new FOMC Chair
UBS previews the June FOMC meeting — Kevin Warsh’s first as Chair. No rate change expected; updated SEP median assumes no cuts until 2028. The press…
Global Rates Markets Summary of views: A summary of our views on duration, the curve, swap spreads, inflation and volatility across the US, Europe, and Japan
Barclays provides a comprehensive summary of rates views across the US, Europe, and Japan. The firm is neutral on US duration ahead of Chair Warsh's first…
Global FX Strategy: FX Compass: Central banks pose dispersion risk
The USD has rallied 2.5% since early May on strong US jobs data and persistent capital inflows, with UBS maintaining a pro-USD bias targeting EURUSD toward…
US CPI Inflation Monitor (May CPI): Sifting through the noise
May core CPI decelerated 17bp to 0.21% m/m (2.9% y/y), softer than forecasts, driven by core goods declines and an idiosyncratic drop in auto insurance that…
Asia Economics & Strategy Daily: Strategy: ID Policy Choices and Responses; CN Trade; BI Hike; MN Trip Takeaways; KR GDP
Citi's daily Asia economics digest covers Bank Indonesia's off-cycle 25bps rate hike to defend the IDR, China's AI-driven trade supercycle, and South Korea's…