Australia: Inflation still a narrow phenomenon
Australia?s second-quarter CPI was softer than revised expectations, with both core and headline inflation undershooting RBA forecasts. JPMorgan sees…
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Inflation
Research reports on CPI, price pressure, wage trends, commodities and policy response.
53 reports
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July FOMC: A question of patience
The market believes the Fed will cut rates soon, but the data shows payrolls near breakeven and core inflation flat, indicating the Fed's patience will delay…
EA macro and the energy shock, where do we stand?
The market broadly assumes the energy shock will drive the euro area into a deep recession, but actual data shows the economy is tracking a narrow median path…
Global Economics & Strategy: Deep Speak: An AI-driven read on tone shifts at the Fed, ECB and BoJ
The market mistakenly treats the Fed, ECB, and BoJ as synchronized in policy stance, but AI tone tracking reveals a clear divergence in their communication…
China: Fiscal revenue and expenditure growth both improved in June, while land sales revenue contracted further
The market assumes China's fiscal position is uniformly deteriorating, but June data reveals a structural divergence between accelerating on-budget revenue…
AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 CHARTS PODCAST The US inventory cycle and upcoming change in tariff regime, with our Chief US Political Economist
The market assumes a steady, extended US inventory restocking cycle through the second half of the year, but actual trade data reveals a compressed cycle…
The Weekly Worldview: Europe‘s Hard Fiscal Choices
The market treats European sovereign risk as a uniform asset class, but the data reveals a structural divergence in fiscal health across countries. Fiscal…
CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART: MXCN gained 3% while A-shares lost 1%; PBoC Governor Pan unveiled package to support CNH market in HK; CPI inflation softened in June
The market treats China's equity market as a single entity driven by macro factors, but actual data reveals a structural divergence between offshore and…
LatAm Monthly Wrap - June 2026: LatAm Lags, While Policy Regime Change Materializes in the Andeans
The market treats Latin America as a single homogenous EM block, but June returns reveal a 19-percentage-point spread between Andean winners and Southern Cone…
Australia Real Estate: Rates peaking, budget tailwinds. Time to buy Australian Residential Developers. SGP/MGR upgrade to Buy
The market has priced Australian residential REITs for a severe housing downturn, but construction cost escalation is contained at just 1-3% and developer…
Global Data Watch: Asia: Oil Down, Dollar Up: A Rotation in Asian Central Banks
The market assumes synchronized easing across Asian central banks, but the crude price collapse is creating a structural policy divide between oil importers…
USA: Core PCE in Line With Expectations; Q1 GDP Revised Up to +2.1% on Lower Imports and Higher Inventories; Core Durable Goods Orders
The market treats headline GDP growth as a uniform signal of economic health, but the composition reveals a critical divergence where inventories and trade…
Global forecasts: Updated forecasts for global bond yields, WTI, Brent, global equity indices, select FX/EM currency pairs and key economic forecasts, including GDP, inflation, debt and interest rates.
The market assumes global bond yields and oil prices will move in tandem or remain range-bound, but Barclays forecasts reveal a structural divergence: US…
Korea Utilities: Nuclear: More policy support for US nuclear projects
The market treats all Korea Utilities as equal beneficiaries of the US nuclear renaissance, but reality is that the DOE's $17.5 billion loan specifically…
Global Rates Strategy | Global June Index Extensions
The market assumes uniform June extension patterns across global rates indices, but actual data reveals a clear regional divergence between Eurozone, UK, and…
US Week Ahead: US Week Ahead: June 22 – June 28
The key economic data release this week is the PCE inflation report on Thursday. There are Jan Hatzius several speaking engagements with Fed officials this…
Sunday Start | What‘s Next in Global Macro: New Chair, New Chapter
inflation expectations has moved up only little, in contrast to the surge in the Michigan measure. In the preliminary estimate for June, long-run inflation…
European Chemicals: Weekend Chemical Reactions
fertilizer consumers. In the EU Chemicals space, the insights from this call will be particularly relevant for Yara, K+S and, to a lesser extent, OCI. Please…