Credit Bulletin: Deleveraging and Growth Story Intact Despite Leadership Churn
BP is a large, globally diversified, integrated energy company based in the UK. Historically, BP operated three main business segments: (i) Oil Production &…
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Interest Rates
Rates research across yield curves, bond markets, policy transmission and financing conditions.
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ECB Gaps Pricing: A Quantitative Framework
Morgan Stanley presents a quantitative framework for ECB gap pricing, comparing policy expectations across forecast and non-forecast meetings and tracking how…
July FOMC: A question of patience
The market believes the Fed will cut rates soon, but the data shows payrolls near breakeven and core inflation flat, indicating the Fed's patience will delay…
Global Economics & Strategy: Deep Speak: An AI-driven read on tone shifts at the Fed, ECB and BoJ
The market mistakenly treats the Fed, ECB, and BoJ as synchronized in policy stance, but AI tone tracking reveals a clear divergence in their communication…
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The market treats the housing sector as a single cyclical downturn, but the reality reveals a structural divergence between premium and entry-level segments…
Crude Oil → Fed Policy Pricing → UST Yield Linkage Returns
The market broadly assumes the transmission mechanism between crude oil, Fed policy, and UST yields is permanently broken, but recent data reveals this…
China Banks: Style rotation drives selloff; CMB the yield bright spot
The market misprices China banks as a uniform defensive sector, but a style rotation is creating a structural divergence between SOE banks and joint-stock…
Nike Inc (NKE.N): Reiterated Calendar 2026 Guide but Lower Sales, Stronger GM; No Comments on 2H27
Market believes Nike is a uniform revenue decline story, but the data reveals a split: China sales are recovering faster than expected while NAM weakens. The…
EM Technical Watch: Issuance to Take a Hydration Break: EM Sovereign Credit Strategy | Global
The market treats EM sovereign credit as a homogeneous asset class, but data reveals a structural divergence between high-yield and investment-grade…
Genting Group: Cheap valuations, growing earnings, improving technicals: Initiate on GENT perp with OW
The market prices Genting Group's perpetual bonds as distressed, but the reality is a structural earnings recovery driven by New York casino EBITDA growth and…
Australia Real Estate: Rates peaking, budget tailwinds. Time to buy Australian Residential Developers. SGP/MGR upgrade to Buy
The market has priced Australian residential REITs for a severe housing downturn, but construction cost escalation is contained at just 1-3% and developer…
Global Data Watch: Asia: Oil Down, Dollar Up: A Rotation in Asian Central Banks
The market assumes synchronized easing across Asian central banks, but the crude price collapse is creating a structural policy divide between oil importers…
Equity Funding Implies a Tumultuous Quarter-End
The market treats quarter-end equity funding stress as a routine seasonal technicality, but financing costs are rapidly approaching December 2024 year-end…
KPN NV (KPN.AS): A quality stock that is easy to own; upgrade to Buy
The market still prices KPN as a capped utility, but the reality is that its fibre maturation is about to unlock a structural step-change in free cash flow by…
Global forecasts: Updated forecasts for global bond yields, WTI, Brent, global equity indices, select FX/EM currency pairs and key economic forecasts, including GDP, inflation, debt and interest rates.
The market assumes global bond yields and oil prices will move in tandem or remain range-bound, but Barclays forecasts reveal a structural divergence: US…
Global Rates Strategy | Global June Index Extensions
The market assumes uniform June extension patterns across global rates indices, but actual data reveals a clear regional divergence between Eurozone, UK, and…
Brazilian Education: Reducing Estimates on a More Flatish SELIC Curve; Upgrade Yduqs to OW, Downgrade Anima to N
The market treats all Brazilian education stocks as uniformly exposed to the SELIC curve, but cash flow generation is the true differentiator. Yduqs' robust…
Cipla (CIPL.BO): Opening 90D +ve CW: US Triggers, Valuation Comfort, Strong India Play
Market consensus assumes Cipla faces persistent US headwinds, but the reality is that a strong Nintedanib share and the imminent Indore plant re-inspection…