Asia Economics: AI capex, oil, the Fed, tariffs, and El Niño: climbing the wall of worry
Downloaded by Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley Investors are raising 3 concerns: We see Asia’s growth outlook to remain…
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AI Semiconductor
Broker research around AI chips, advanced nodes, foundry supply, GPU demand and semiconductor equipment.
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Philippines: Trade deficit narrows in June: Tech exporters start to pass on higher import costs
The trade deficit narrowed to US$4.9 billion in June (May: US$6.1 billion, revised Emerging Markets Asia, Economic higher from US$5.5 billion), coming in…
China Economics: AI Supercycle Powers a Structural Export Upswing
The market treats China's export strength as a uniform cyclical recovery, but the data reveals a structural AI supercycle driving a sharp divergence. AI…
Transmission of AI Super Surplus in Korea - Mostly Through FX and Fiscal Policy
The market treats KRW weakness as a cyclical export tailwind, but overlooks the structural divergence between record terms-of-trade gains and currency…
Niche DRAM Upcycle May Extend to 2028; OW
The market assumes the DRAM cycle will normalize by 2026, but structural shortages in niche DRAM are extending the upcycle to 2028, creating a divergence from…
CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART: MXCN gained 3% while A-shares lost 1%; PBoC Governor Pan unveiled package to support CNH market in HK; CPI inflation softened in June
The market treats China's equity market as a single entity driven by macro factors, but actual data reveals a structural divergence between offshore and…
Atlas Copco A: Semiconductor capex and a potential short-cycle uptick overpower our structural concerns. Upgrade to Neutral.
The market treats Atlas Copco A as a uniform cyclical industrial, but data reveals a structural divergence between its semiconductor capex-driven vacuum…
Rohm (6963): Maintain Overweight: Raise price target, reflecting analog/discrete semiconductor squeeze, Kioxia‘s share price rise
The market treats Rohm as a cyclical trough in analog/discrete semiconductors, but Si-MOSFET export data reveals a structural supply squeeze driven by AI…
South Korea Economics: We Raise Our 2026E-28E GDP with Resilient April-May data and Strong CAPEX plan
The market broadly assumes South Korea's GDP growth will peak in 2026, but hard data reveals a structural reacceleration driven by semiconductor CAPEX and…
Delta-One Flows & Positioning: Asia equity futures bid; ETF investors favor Memory/Semis/Real Estate, cut Commodities/Crypto; HFs sell NDX, buy SPX/RTY futures; ETF rebalance noise persists
The market mistakenly assumes a broad risk-on rally is lifting all regions and sectors equally, but actual flow data reveals an extreme divergence. Asia…
Equity Funding Implies a Tumultuous Quarter-End
The market treats quarter-end equity funding stress as a routine seasonal technicality, but financing costs are rapidly approaching December 2024 year-end…
ASICS: Fireside chat with the new China head (ex-Group CFO) – Structural upside
The market treats ASICS China as a low-margin appendage, but the reality is that China is entering the same operating-model overhaul that drove sharp margin…
Time to shine with structural shift in supply
The market treats UMC as a cyclical foundry play, but a structural supply shift is creating pricing power and margin resilience that decouples it from the…
China Semiconductor: How to position China tech stocks in 2026?
The market treats China Semiconductor as a single-cycle sector tied to global demand, but wafer fab equipment players are structurally decoupling, driven by…
Technology - European Semiconductors | Europe AI GPU/ASIC Tracker, China LLMs, Advanced Packaging and MLCC - The Next AI Bottleneck
The market treats European semiconductors as a uniform AI beneficiary, but energy constraints in the US and chip capacity bottlenecks in China are creating…
AI Supply Chain: Preliminary 2027 TSMC CoWoS Allocation
The market assumes AI supply chain growth is exclusively a GPU story driven by Nvidia, but data reveals a structural divergence where CPU and ASIC segments…
Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp.: Strong 12” expansion, more AI revenues and further 8” price hikes; Stay OW and raise PT to NT$220
The market treats Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp. as a mature 8-inch foundry, underestimating its structural transformation into a 12-inch AI power…
Chipbond Technology: Silicon Photonics to drive revenue growth and GM uptick, raise PT to NT$225; Neutral
The market treats Chipbond Technology as a pure DDIC cyclical play, ignoring that its silicon photonics (SiPh) segment is becoming a structural growth driver…