Asia Economics: AI capex, oil, the Fed, tariffs, and El Niño: climbing the wall of worry
Downloaded by Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley Investors are raising 3 concerns: We see Asia’s growth outlook to remain…
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Global Macro
Macro strategy research across growth, policy, rates, inflation, currencies and regional market cycles.
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The trade deficit narrowed to US$4.9 billion in June (May: US$6.1 billion, revised Emerging Markets Asia, Economic higher from US$5.5 billion), coming in…
France 2Q GDP rebounds despite Middle East headwinds
Despite headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, the French economy grew Economic and Policy Research 0.7%ar in 2Q, a tick above our recently revised…
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US Restaurants—Card Insights: Citi’s Credit Card Data for US Restaurants – Week Ending 7/25/26
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ECB Gaps Pricing: A Quantitative Framework
Morgan Stanley presents a quantitative framework for ECB gap pricing, comparing policy expectations across forecast and non-forecast meetings and tracking how…
Australia: Inflation still a narrow phenomenon
Australia?s second-quarter CPI was softer than revised expectations, with both core and headline inflation undershooting RBA forecasts. JPMorgan sees…
July FOMC: A question of patience
The market believes the Fed will cut rates soon, but the data shows payrolls near breakeven and core inflation flat, indicating the Fed's patience will delay…
EA macro and the energy shock, where do we stand?
The market broadly assumes the energy shock will drive the euro area into a deep recession, but actual data shows the economy is tracking a narrow median path…
Aluminium Dashboard: Prices fall materially on supply growth fears, despite deficit markets; visible inventory remains elevated ahead of a looser 2027/28 balance
The market broadly assumes aluminium oversupply is imminent, but the reality is that the 2026 deficit is deepening while prices already discount a 2028…
Investor Presentation: Cyclical Resilience; Structural Strength
The market interprets the 6% decline in total Kharif sowing as broad-based agricultural weakness, but the data reveals a structural rotation toward cash crops…
Global Economics & Strategy: Deep Speak: An AI-driven read on tone shifts at the Fed, ECB and BoJ
The market mistakenly treats the Fed, ECB, and BoJ as synchronized in policy stance, but AI tone tracking reveals a clear divergence in their communication…
China: Fiscal revenue and expenditure growth both improved in June, while land sales revenue contracted further
The market assumes China's fiscal position is uniformly deteriorating, but June data reveals a structural divergence between accelerating on-budget revenue…
AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 CHARTS PODCAST The US inventory cycle and upcoming change in tariff regime, with our Chief US Political Economist
The market assumes a steady, extended US inventory restocking cycle through the second half of the year, but actual trade data reveals a compressed cycle…
European Economic Comment: ECB Bank Lending Survey: Credit supply not quite as tight as in Q1
The market assumes Eurozone credit conditions are uniformly tightening, but the latest lending survey reveals a clear divergence between corporate and…
EM Sovereign Credit Strategy: At this rate, spreads can stay quite tight
The market believes EM sovereign spreads are vulnerable to renewed Middle East conflict, but the data shows that recent spread-widening episodes have…
Global Data Watch: Asia: China’s 2H recovery contingent on fiscal
The market interprets China's 2Q GDP miss as broad-based weakness, but the data reveals a structural divergence between export-driven production and domestic…
Geopolitics and GDP: Structural Alignment Matters More than Near-Term Risk
The market treats geopolitical risk events as the primary GDP driver, but data reveals structural alignment shifts have a 10x larger long-run impact. This…