Asia‘s Strongest Industrial Capex Cycle in 20 Years?
Downloaded by Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley Asia’s industrial super-cycle has become a defining framework for regional…
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Global Macro
Macro strategy research across growth, policy, rates, inflation, currencies and regional market cycles.
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Japan’s June industrial production rose 1.3%m/m sa, beating both our forecast and Economic and Policy Research consensus expectations (JPM: 0.8%, consensus…
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The July Tokyo CPI indicated that inflation remains on an upward trajectory, Economic and Policy Research following June. The rise in inflation was…
Asia Economics: AI capex, oil, the Fed, tariffs, and El Niño: climbing the wall of worry
Downloaded by Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley Investors are raising 3 concerns: We see Asia’s growth outlook to remain…
Philippines: Trade deficit narrows in June: Tech exporters start to pass on higher import costs
The trade deficit narrowed to US$4.9 billion in June (May: US$6.1 billion, revised Emerging Markets Asia, Economic higher from US$5.5 billion), coming in…
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Despite headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, the French economy grew Economic and Policy Research 0.7%ar in 2Q, a tick above our recently revised…
ECB Gaps Pricing: A Quantitative Framework
Morgan Stanley presents a quantitative framework for ECB gap pricing, comparing policy expectations across forecast and non-forecast meetings and tracking how…
EA macro and the energy shock, where do we stand?
The market broadly assumes the energy shock will drive the euro area into a deep recession, but actual data shows the economy is tracking a narrow median path…
Investor Presentation: Cyclical Resilience; Structural Strength
The market interprets the 6% decline in total Kharif sowing as broad-based agricultural weakness, but the data reveals a structural rotation toward cash crops…
Global Economics & Strategy: Deep Speak: An AI-driven read on tone shifts at the Fed, ECB and BoJ
The market mistakenly treats the Fed, ECB, and BoJ as synchronized in policy stance, but AI tone tracking reveals a clear divergence in their communication…
AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 CHARTS PODCAST The US inventory cycle and upcoming change in tariff regime, with our Chief US Political Economist
The market assumes a steady, extended US inventory restocking cycle through the second half of the year, but actual trade data reveals a compressed cycle…
European Economic Comment: ECB Bank Lending Survey: Credit supply not quite as tight as in Q1
The market assumes Eurozone credit conditions are uniformly tightening, but the latest lending survey reveals a clear divergence between corporate and…
EM Sovereign Credit Strategy: At this rate, spreads can stay quite tight
The market believes EM sovereign spreads are vulnerable to renewed Middle East conflict, but the data shows that recent spread-widening episodes have…
Geopolitics and GDP: Structural Alignment Matters More than Near-Term Risk
The market treats geopolitical risk events as the primary GDP driver, but data reveals structural alignment shifts have a 10x larger long-run impact. This…
Europe‘s 2026 Heatwave – Heat, Cooling, Drought and Disruption
The market treats Europe's heatwave as a temporary shock, but data reveals a structural divergence between cooling demand and logistics resilience. With only…
China Economics: AI Supercycle Powers a Structural Export Upswing
The market treats China's export strength as a uniform cyclical recovery, but the data reveals a structural AI supercycle driving a sharp divergence. AI…
Transmission of AI Super Surplus in Korea - Mostly Through FX and Fiscal Policy
The market treats KRW weakness as a cyclical export tailwind, but overlooks the structural divergence between record terms-of-trade gains and currency…
Man Group (EMG.L): Estimate changes ahead of 1H26
Market believes Man Group's performance fees will remain under pressure from macro uncertainty, but positive 1H26 performance has already driven an 8% upgrade…