Nomura Global Autos Monthly: Global outlook cut as China demand underwhelms; Rising China-made exports could reignite trade tensions across key auto markets
Report Coverage
- Broker
- Nomura
- Region
- Global (China, India, US, Europe, Japan, Korea)
- Sector
- Machinery & Equipment
- Report Type
- Market Report
- Primary Focus
- Global auto market outlook
Report Summary
Nomura revises down global auto sales forecast to -1% y-y for 2026 (from +2% six months ago). China's domestic demand deteriorated for 5 consecutive months after NEV tax exemption expiry. Chinese OEMs pivoting to exports (7.37mn units forecast), which could reignite trade tensions.
Key Takeaways
- Global auto sales +2% y-y in April
- Ex-China/Russia +5% led by India (+25%)
- China wholesale declined 5th consecutive month
- 2026 forecast cut to -1% y-y
- China export forecasts raised to 7.37mn units (+19%)
- China-made vehicles' share in key markets could rise from 15% to 22% by 2027
- India outlook revised up by 0.47mn units
Why This Report Matters
China's weakening domestic auto demand combined with surging exports creates a dual risk: earnings pressure for global automakers and potential new trade barriers as Chinese vehicles rapidly gain market share overseas.
Topics Covered
Companies Mentioned
Who this summary is for
This summary is for users researching the Nomura Nomura Global Autos Monthly report. It helps users review Nomura Global Autos Monthly: Global outlook cut as China demand underwhelms; Rising China-made exports could reignite trade tensions across key auto markets coverage, key takeaways, and related broker or sector research paths across Global auto sales, China domestic demand, NEV; Chinese EV OEMs (general).
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