US Economics: CPI Preview -- May core CPI modest while core PCE still strong
Report Coverage
- Broker
- Citi
- Region
- United States
- Sector
- Finance
- Report Type
- Industry Report
- Primary Focus
- US inflation divergence (CPI vs PCE)
Report Summary
Citi expects a modest 0.22% MoM core CPI for May (below consensus 0.30%), driven by cleaner shelter readings and soft core goods. However, the Fed's preferred core PCE measure is expected at a much stronger 0.37%, boosted by rising equity prices and AI-related computer components. The CPI-PCE divergence complicates Fed policy communication.
Key Takeaways
- Core CPI forecast: +0.22% MoM / +2.84% YoY (vs consensus +0.30% / +3.0%)
- Core PCE expected at +0.37% MoM -- materially higher than CPI due to equity prices and AI computer components
- Shelter inflation continuing to slow: primary rents +0.22%, OER +0.24%
- Used car prices carry upside risk as Manheim wholesale index has been rising
- Airfares most energy-sensitive but soft consumer demand limiting pass-through of higher jet fuel costs
- Tariff-related price increases remain limited; apparel prices expected to decline 0.2% in May
Why This Report Matters
The growing CPI-PCE divergence is an increasingly important dynamic that shapes Fed policy decisions and market expectations for rate cuts.
Topics Covered
Who this summary is for
This summary is for users researching the Citi US Economics report. It helps users review US Economics: CPI Preview -- May core CPI modest while core PCE still strong coverage, key takeaways, and related broker or sector research paths across US inflation, CPI, core PCE.
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