Global Oil and Gas Hormuz tracker: day 102
Report Coverage
- Broker
- UBS
- Region
- Middle East (Strait of Hormuz, Gulf States, Iran)
- Sector
- Transportation, Fossil Energy
- Report Type
- Economic Report
- Primary Focus
- Strait of Hormuz Oil & Gas Flow Tracking
Report Summary
UBS Evidence Lab's daily Hormuz Strait tracker on day 102 of the crisis, reporting that President Trump threatened new strikes against Iran. UBS data shows no material improvement in oil and gas flows — only 4 vessels crossed on Tuesday vs. a pre-crisis daily average of nearly 50. However, crude loadings ex-Iran in the Gulf have improved to 1.7Mb/d (from ~0.5Mb/d in Apr-May), with higher loadings primarily in the UAE. Iran's crude loadings dropped below 0.5Mb/d in June.
Key Takeaways
- US struck Iranian air defences, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites in a 'proportional response' after Iran shot down a US helicopter over Hormuz
- Only 4 oil & gas vessels crossed Hormuz on Tuesday (2 each direction); June average ~3, still far below February's ~50 daily crossings
- Oil exports via Hormuz at 1.2Mboe/d in June vs. 1.3Mboe/d in May — no material improvement despite reports of increased traffic
- Crude loadings ex-Iran in the Gulf improved to 1.7Mb/d average (from ~0.5Mb/d in Apr-May), with UAE leading the recovery
- Iran crude loadings fell to <0.5Mb/d in June, below April (1.5Mb/d) and March (1.7Mb/d) levels
- Bab-el-Mandeb Strait flows bounced back slightly above average
Why This Report Matters
UBS Evidence Lab's satellite data provides the most granular real-time picture of Hormuz Strait oil and gas flows, showing that despite diplomatic signals of improvement, physical volumes remain severely depressed — critical for pricing crude oil and energy equities.
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Who this summary is for
This summary is for users researching the UBS Global Oil and Gas Hormuz tracker report. It helps users review Global Oil and Gas Hormuz tracker: day 102 coverage, key takeaways, and related broker or sector research paths across Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption tracking, US-Iran military escalation and oil supply, Gulf crude loading volumes by country; ADNOC, Qatar Energy.
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