Jefferies
2026-06-12
Australia | Refining & Marketing
Report Summary
Australian refining margins improved slightly to US$33/bbl this week, remaining well above historical levels of ~US$11/bbl due to ongoing Middle East supply disruption from the US-Iran conflict. Gasoline retail margins weakened but were partly offset by diesel strength, while the fuel excise cut (26.3c/L) is set to expire at end of June. Jefferies prefers Ampol (ALD) over Viva Energy (VEA), citing refining margin strength, solid convenience retail execution, and U-GO delivering ahead of its business case.
Key Takeaways
- Refining margins averaged US$33/bbl this week (Minas211 at US$32.59/bbl), nearly 3x the historical average of ~US$11/bbl
- China has begun drawing down commercial crude reserves as imports fell from 12.5mb/d pre-conflict to ~2.5mb/d to manage supply shortfall
- Australian blended retail margins averaged 19.9c/L in 1Q26 but weakened to 16.8c/L in 2Q26 to date
- NZ importer margins remain well above long-run average at 44.9NZc/L in 1Q26 vs ~30NZc/L historically
- Fuel excise cut of 26.3c/L set to expire end of June with no final Government decision on extension yet
Topics Covered
Refining Margins
Oil Supply Disruption
US-Iran Conflict
Fuel Excise Policy
Australian Energy Sector
Retail Fuel Markets
Crude Oil Imports
Companies Mentioned
Ampol (ALD)
Viva Energy (VEA)
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