Bernstein
2026-06-11
Viridien: Question of Timing – Will Everything Happen in Q4 2026 (and 2027)?
Report Summary
Bernstein maintains Outperform on Viridien with a reduced price target of 130 EUR (from 163 EUR), citing divergent time horizons among seismic companies, sell-side analysts, and E&P companies as the source of share price volatility. The bull case remains compelling: exploration capex has declined for 12 years, E&P companies face reserve replacement challenges in the early 2030s, and any incremental multi-client capex from major oil companies would have a disproportionate positive impact on seismic companies' P&L. E&P companies remain cautious on discretionary spending in Q2-Q3 2026, but Q4 2026 and 2027 outlook is potentially very strong.
Key Takeaways
- Price target reduced from 163 to 130 EUR; stock at 103.10 EUR implies 26% upside potential
- Viridien's FY25 EBITDA estimated at $551M, declining to $436.5M in FY26E before recovering to $507M in FY27E
- Exploration capex has been declining for 12 years; E&P companies face reserve replacement crisis in early 2030s
- Each of the 10 largest oil companies adding just $50M/year in multi-client spend would have a disproportionate positive impact on seismic sector
- EV/EBITDA valuation at 3.7x for FY25A, rising to 4.7x for FY26E, then back to 4.1x for FY27E
Topics Covered
Seismic Services
Oil Exploration
E&P Capital Expenditure
Multi-Client Data
Reserve Replacement
Oil & Gas Services
European Equities
Companies Mentioned
Viridien
Shearwater
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