What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Record US IPOs and resilient earnings, Iran war risks, lackluster US consumer outlook
Report Coverage
- Broker
- Goldman Sachs
- Region
- Global (US, Europe, China, Japan, Korea, Middle East)
- Sector
- Transportation
- Report Type
- Industry Report
- Primary Focus
- US equities, Iran risks & consumer weakness
Report Summary
Goldman Sachs macro research highlights three themes: 2026 on track for record US IPO issuance (~$225bn) alongside resilient global earnings; the Iran conflict and Hormuz closure posing two-sided oil and supply chain risks; and the US consumer outlook remaining lackluster despite healthy Q1 earnings, with real income growth slowing to 0.9%. S&P 500 year-end target: 8,000.
Key Takeaways
- Record US IPO year expected with $225bn gross proceeds; corporate buybacks of $1.3tn outweigh $1.1tn total equity supply
- S&P 500 year-end target 8,000; raised targets for STOXX Europe 600, TOPIX, KOSPI, TWSE
- Iran war risks: Hormuz closure amplifying refined product tailwinds; GDP headwinds >0.5% from non-energy product shortages
- US consumer: real income growth forecast only 0.9% (Q4/Q4) for 2026; spending growth 1.3%, below consensus
- AI adoption: share of US establishments using AI ticked down 0.3pp to 19.5% even as AI-attributed layoffs accelerated
- GDP forecasts: Global 2.4%, US 2.0%, China 4.7%, Euro area 0.7% for 2026
Why This Report Matters
A comprehensive macro view connecting record equity issuance, geopolitical energy risks, and weakening consumer fundamentals — critical for portfolio positioning.
Topics Covered
Companies Mentioned
Who this summary is for
This summary is for users researching the Goldman Sachs What's Top of Mind in Macro Research report. It helps users review What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Record US IPOs and resilient earnings, Iran war risks, lackluster US consumer outlook coverage, key takeaways, and related broker or sector research paths across US IPO market, corporate earnings, buybacks; S&P 500, STOXX 600.
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